Okay, deep breath, because the iPhone is about to get more expensive, and this time it might be a lot more expensive.
Apple already confirmed this week that price rises are coming across the lineup, blaming the soaring cost of memory chips. Now The Wall Street Journal has run its own numbers, and the figure it landed on is a slightly eye watering one. According to its analysis, the iPhone 18 Pro could start as high as $1,399. For reference, that is the iPhone 17 Pro’s $1,099 plus an extra $300. Ouch.
Tim Cook is being coy about it
The WSJ actually got Apple boss Tim Cook on the record, and he admitted the company is not magically shielded from what is happening with memory chip prices. When they pushed him on exactly which devices are going up and when, he basically said they are still figuring it out, with proper clarity expected to land alongside the new iPhones in September. Classic Apple, keep everyone guessing right up until the keynote.
So why is this even happening?
Here is the bit that actually matters. There is a global shortage of two key types of memory right now, DRAM and NAND flash storage, and the culprit is, surprise surprise, AI.
Massive AI data centres are hoovering up the same chips that go into your phone. Manufacturers like Samsung and Micron have pivoted hard towards the high margin, enterprise grade memory that powers AI servers, which leaves a lot less to go around for consumer gear like the iPhone. Less supply, same demand, prices go up. You know the drill.
Let’s talk actual numbers, because they are wild
This is where it gets properly spicy. Research firm TechInsights, quoted by the WSJ, reckons DRAM and flash prices could roughly quadruple by this autumn compared to a year ago. Quadruple.
Break it down per component and it is genuinely a bit mad:
- The 12GB of DRAM in the iPhone 17 Pro cost Apple around $39. In the iPhone 18 Pro, that could shoot up to $145.
- The 256GB of flash storage that cost Apple about $13 in the 17 Pro could climb to $51.
Stack it all up and the picture gets clearer. TechInsights pegs Apple’s non memory component and build costs for the 17 Pro at roughly $530. Add the memory back in and the total bill of materials for the base 17 Pro comes to about $582. For the 18 Pro, that is projected to jump 25% to around $726.
The maths behind that $1,399 figure
Apple loves its margins, and that is the whole story here. TechInsights estimates the $1,099 iPhone 17 Pro runs a gross margin of about 47%. To hold that exact margin on the 18 Pro, Apple would technically need to charge $1,371.
But Apple likes its pricing to land on nice tidy numbers, so the WSJ thinks a $1,299 start is more realistic, which would mean settling for a slightly slimmer 44% margin.
And then there is the camera. Supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has said the new camera system could cost Apple roughly 50% more than the last generation. Factor that in and the WSJ lands on its headline number: an iPhone 18 Pro starting at $1,399, possibly more.
What this means for the rest of the lineup
If the Pro lands anywhere in that $1,299 to $1,399 range, that is a $200 to $300 hike over today’s model, which would sting. And it does not stop there. The iPhone 18 Pro Max would almost certainly sit $100 above whatever the Pro costs, keeping in line with the current gap between the two.
Oh, and lurking at the top of the range is the foldable “iPhone Ultra,” which is rumoured to launch alongside the 18 Pro models with a starting price around $2,000. So if $1,399 made you wince, just wait.
Nothing here is official yet, and Apple genuinely might soak up some of these costs to avoid scaring everyone off. But the direction of travel is pretty obvious. The next iPhone is shaping up to be the priciest one yet, and AI’s appetite for memory is the reason your upgrade is about to hurt your wallet a little more.
